The 2021 Quaker State 400 will take place on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Atlanta Motor Speedway. With the season already half over, the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs are coming into clearer view. Denny Hamlin remains in first place in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series standings despite failing to capture a win this season, but Kyle Larson (four wins) has narrowed Hamlin's lead to three points. Meanwhile, talented youngsters like Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick are inside the top 16 with just six races remaining until the postseason starts.

Larson finished second in Atlanta earlier this season and he's listed as the 2-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Quaker State 400 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Also near the top of the NASCAR at Atlanta odds board are Kyle Busch (17-2), Kevin Harvick (8-1), Chase Elliott (8-1) and Hamlin (9-1). Before scouring the 2021 Quaker State 400 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Quaker State 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then last week it struck once more, nailing Chase Elliott to win at Road America for another 5-2 return. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Quaker State 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 NASCAR at Atlanta leaderboard.

Top 2021 Quaker State 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Brad Keselowski, despite him being a 12-1 long shot in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He has a much better chance at winning than his odds imply. Keselowski enters the 2021 Quaker State 400 sitting 10th in the NASCAR Cup Series standings with six top-five finishes, including a win at Talladega in the 2021 GEICO 500.

The 37-year-old has had a lot of success at Atlanta Motor Speedway, winning the 2019 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 and the 2017 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. He also had a second-place finish at the same race in 2018 and has led laps now in four of his last five starts in Atlanta and collected a top-10 finish in six of seven starts there.

And a massive shocker: Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 8-1, stumbles and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Quaker State 400 starting lineup. Elliott is the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion and coming off another road win at Elkhart Lake last week, but speedway racing has been a challenge for him this year.

Elliott finished 14th at Homestead-Miami Speedway, 13th at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and 38th in Atlanta after engine failure. Prior to his win at Road America, Elliott had finished outside the top 10 in his last three starts, but now leaves the comfort of road-course racing, Elliott is a fade here given his 8-1 price tag.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Atlanta odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Quaker State 400 2021? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value this week? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Quaker State 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has called three of the last five NASCAR Cup Series winners. 

2021 Quaker State 400 odds

Kyle Larson 2-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kevin Harvick 8-1
Chase Elliott 8-1
Denny Hamlin 9-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Alex Bowman 15-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Christopher Bell 35-1
Austin Dillon 50-1
Tyler Reddick 65-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Aric Almirola 100-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
Matt DiBenedetto 150-1
Cole Custer 200-1
Ryan Newman 200-1
Bubba Wallace 200-1
Erik Jones 200-1
Chase Briscoe 250-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Corey Lajoie 1000-1
Ryan Preece 1000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Field 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Anthony Alfredo 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1